Murkowski, who won roughly 45 percent of the vote, will now have to earn a plurality of the vote in a consolidated field of candidates featuring Donald Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, the right-wing choice of the state’s Republican establishment and the second-leading vote-getter in the primaries.
In a battle for Alaska’s “other” voters, Murkowski and Tshibaka found themselves in a dog fight. In a crowded field, polling showed the two virtually deadlocked among likely voters, with Murkowski only holding a narrow lead among voters in the first and second rounds of voting.
Meanwhile, the state’s Republican Party, which had repeatedly censured Murkowski for her public opposition to the former president, sought to frame Tshibaka’s candidacy as a fight against the Washington D.C. establishment that was backing Murkowski. On Tuesday, Alaska Republican Party leaders voted to censure Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell after his Senate Leadership Fund spent millions of dollars in ads attacking Tshibaka, whom they accused of “ripping off taxpayers.”
However, Murkowski has an advantage others don’t—the benefit of ranked choice voting, which allows voters to “rank” their top choices for office in an “instant runoff” to determine which candidate truly has the broadest support among voters. Trump’s influence on the ballot has proven to be divisive.
On the initial four-way ballot, Murkowski defeats Tshibaka by just two points, a recent poll by Alaska Survey Research shows, with Democrat Patricia Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley capturing the remaining 20 percent of the vote. In the following three-way round, Murkowski edges Tshibaka by just a single point, polls show, as Kelley’s voters consolidate behind the two Republicans.
Chesbro’s defeat in the second round, however, gives Murkowski the support she needs to advance.
According to Alaska Survey Research’s poll, which surveyed 1,501 Alaskan adults aged 18 years and older, Murkowski stands to defeat Tshibaka by 11 points in the final round, powered primarily by a statewide coalition of moderate Republicans, Democrats and independent voters.
Others in the race, meanwhile, have sought to ensure their candidate gets every single point they can in a vote some analysts predict to be much closer than the polls suggest.
In September, Kelley—who remains on the ballot—formally suspended his campaign to endorse Tshibaka, saying he did not want to contribute to the style of “divide and conquer” strategy that allowed Democrat Mary Peltola to win a major upset in her ranked-choice election against Republicans Nick Begich and hard-right candidate Sarah Palin, who observers said significantly hurt the party’s chances among independents.
Meanwhile, Peltola and Murkowski have crossed party lines to support one another’s general election bids. Asked by The Washington Post earlier this week if she would rank Peltola first on her ballot next month, Murkowski—after “a full 18 seconds,” according to the newspaper—said she would.
“Yeah, I am,” the incumbent senator told the newspaper. “I’m going to get in so much trouble.”
Newsweek reached out to Tshibaka’s campaign for comment.